Odds for the Oscars.
It's that time of year again; a time for Hollywood stars to adorn themselves with outfits conceived by high-end fashion designers and strike poses for paparazzi. A time for speculation on what films will be crowned the most culturally significant by a select number of industry insiders. Yes, it is time for the Academy Awards.
Despite its pomp and circumstance, the Oscars feels like a fixed horse race. It is no secret they aren't awarded on merit — the fact that Stanley Kubrick never received a golden statuette in his lifetime is enough proof of that. Industry considerations and Hollywood politics take prominence over cultural importance. Sometimes it is simply a matter of having distributed the most screener copies to voting Academy members (i.e. "Annie Hall").
Regardless, it is still fun to speculate on who will bring home an Oscar on Sunday and what films will receive a boost at the box office for the next few weeks. In some ways the Oscars are more fun to wager on than the Super Bowl because of myriad deciding factors that are more difficult to quantify than merely one team's athletic ability over another. Ladies and gentlemen, for your gambling pleasure, I give you my odds for "Best Picture."
American Sniper: This felt like a sequel to Clint Eastwood's "chair" speech at the 2012 Republican National Convention — a half-baked commentary on patriotism and violence that almost feels like an attempt to troll conservatives. In the end it was just a confusing mess. It will be even more confusing if American Sniper wins Best Adapted Screenplay. (8-1)
Birdman: A rebuke of mean-spirited critics who get a kick out of putting down honest actors who are earnestly just trying to make a comeback while making some genuine high art. One can imagine that many Academy members with a bone to pick will vote "Birdman" Best Picture out of spite of highfalutin' critics. (2-1)
Boyhood: Epic in scope and impressive in terms of its technical ability, Boyhood's ability to make the viewer feel the passage of time is unlike anything in cinema (The "7 Up" series is a close second, though). "Boyhood" lacks a lot of the glamour and grandeur associated with big Hollywood dramas and may not get the recognition it deserves. (4-1)
The Grand Budapest Hotel: Wes Anderson, one of the last great auteurs standing in modern American cinema, will have his films passed up a couple times before he gets his due. That's not much of a problem in his eyes because he is still allowed to churn out a "Wes Anderson film" every couple of years and they will inevitably be crossover successes between art house cinemas and multiplexes. (9-1)
The Imitation Game: The messages of tolerance and acceptance of those who are different (even if they have the capacity to win a global armed conflict) aren't too heavy-handed, but the breadth of "The Imitation Game" pales to some of its competitors. Expect Benedict Cumberbatch to win Best Actor instead. (19-1)
Selma: Not quite the sadomasochistic guilt cinema that "12 Years A Slave" was and much more enjoyable for that reason. However, the chances that for two years in a row a film dealing with America's racist past taking home Best Picture are quite low. (13-1)
The Theory Of Everything: The filler of the category. One has to wonder if this film was successful due to Eddie Redmayne's uncanny resemblance to a young Austin Powers. (99-1)
Whiplash: The dark horse of the bunch. It has the right amount of solid, non-star actors (J.K. Simmons) while sporting new faces (Miles Teller) to fly under the radar of the majority of the film going public and then come out of nowhere for a surprise finish. Bet your money on Simmons winning Best Supporting Actor if nothing else. (9-1)
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